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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.